Non-ferrous metal counterattack

For two consecutive days, the non-ferrous metal plate continued to rise, and successfully staged a Jedi rebound at the end of the Year of the Rabbit. In the current context, is the performance of non-ferrous metals short-lived or ready to go? With questions, the reporter interviewed a number of insiders yesterday. Market non-ferrous metals against the trend strong Yesterday morning, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 2,298.83 points, up 0.45 points. Afterwards, the market oscillated all the way. From the perspective of the market, the concept stocks, non-ferrous metals, power generation equipment, steel and other industries opened slightly higher; brokerage, shipbuilding, coal, banking, real estate and other sectors opened slightly lower. In the non-ferrous metal sector, 12 stocks opened at the daily limit. At the close, the gains were ranked second in the sector, including Western materials (002149, stocks), Asia Pacific Technology (002540, shares), Luoping Zinc (002114, stocks) ), Liyuan Aluminum (002501, shares it) and other stocks have been sealed in the daily limit. However, yesterday was not the first day of non-ferrous metal sector rebound, the previous day, the non-ferrous metal sector as a whole rose 9.68%, almost daily limit. Background Multiple factors paving the way Datong Securities (blog, Weibo) investment adviser Fu Yongzhen told reporters that in recent days, the non-ferrous sector rebounded sharply, mainly for four reasons: First, the rebound has technical requirements. On the New Year's Day, the A-shares color index has fallen to the level of the most panic in the European debt crisis in July 2010. It is also the lowest level in the past two years, and technically it has rebound demand. Second, there is a certain economic foundation. The recent easing of the European debt crisis and the signs of warming in the US economic data have given a certain rebound in the economic base. Meanwhile, the fourth quarter GDP announced yesterday was 8.9%. Industrial added value and real estate data show that the domestic economic operation is still weak. Against the backdrop of a gradual slowdown in inflation, the expected slowdown in domestic macroeconomic regulation has spurred metal prices and the non-ferrous metals sector to rise sharply. The increase in copper import growth in December 2012 also reflected the optimistic expectations for metal consumption in 2012. Third, domestic policies are warmer, and after the financial work conference, the policy is warm. News from the Prime Minister’s speech and pensions entering the market have boosted market confidence. Finally, the improvement in liquidity expectations, the surge in M2, and the active injection of liquidity by the central bank's open market operations have significantly improved market liquidity. The non-ferrous sector, as a more sensitive sector for liquidity, naturally has a strong response. Looking back at the performance of the non-ferrous sector in 2011, Zhou Chong, an analyst at Century Securities Nonferrous Metals, said that in 2011, non-ferrous prices rose, non-ferrous stocks did not rise, non-ferrous prices fell, and non-ferrous stocks fell. The price of non-ferrous metals in the overall trend in 2011 was high and low, basically flat in the first half of the year. The average price of most metals in the third quarter fell by 30%, which was flat in the fourth quarter. The prices of gold and rare earths both rose in the first half of the year and fell by 15% and 150% respectively in the whole year. Non-ferrous plates, whether it is basic metals, copper, aluminum, lead and zinc, or small metals such as tungsten, molybdenum, nickel and tin, which are related to emerging industries, have fallen by an average of 40%, and the lead and zinc sectors have fallen the most, reaching 51%. In the first half of the year, Baotou Steel Rare Earth (600111, shares it), also unilateral decline in the second half, the highest drop of 40%. Aftermarket short-term rebound opportunities Everbright Securities (601788, shares it) senior analyst of non-ferrous metals Wang Qianming believes that the current metal price is expected to repair the stage of the market, the short-term rebound will continue, there are trading opportunities. We are optimistic about the flexible and liquid resource stocks. Short-term recommendation: Tongling Nonferrous (000630, stock bar), Jiangxi Copper, Zhongjin Lingnan (000060, stock bar), Chihong Zinc (600497, shares), Tin Industry (000960, shares it), Shandong Gold (600547, shares it) , Zhongjin Gold (600489, shares it), Zijin Mining and so on. However, he also said that the 2-4 month is the peak of European debt repayment, there will be uncertain risks to the colored sector. Be cautious in the medium term. The rise of non-ferrous metals in the past two days will not be short-lived, and there is still room for its duration and growth. Guotai Junan published a research report yesterday that compared with the repeated rebounds in the second half of 2011, the current trend of the non-ferrous sector will be more optimistic. In the rebound that has experienced a sharp decline, we mainly focus on two types of stocks: high elasticity and large decline (ie crater). The high-elastic standard is Tongling Nonferrous, Tin Industry, Western Resources (600139, shares), Oriental Zirconium (002167, shares it). The target of the crater shares is Dongyang Aluminum (600673, shares), Xingye Mining (000426, shares it). At the same time, Essence Securities is also optimistic about the performance of non-ferrous metals, it is recommended to pay attention to three major aspects: energy-saving and environmental protection aspects of GEM (002340, shares it), Zhongke Sanhuan (000970, shares it), Ningbo Yunsheng (600366, shares it), Galaxy Magnets (300127, stock bar); Zijin Mining in precious metals; Liyuan Aluminum in new light alloys and colored functional materials, Nanshan Aluminum (600219, shares), Western Materials, Baoti (600456, shares), Antai Technology (000969, shares it), steel research Gaona (300034, shares it), Xiamen tungsten industry (600549, shares it). Long-term opportunities in "taking resources" It is understood that according to China Nonferrous Metals Network announced "Non-Five Metals Industry" 12th Five-Year Development Plan, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of 10 non-ferrous metals in China will reach 49 million tons in 2015, with 2010 Compared with 34.3 million tons, the average annual demand is expected to increase by 7.4% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, and the average annual growth rate during the 11th Five-Year Plan period is 15.5%. The plan predicts that the apparent consumption of refined copper in China will reach 9.7 million tons in 2015, and the average annual demand growth rate is expected to reach 5.2%. In 2010, it was 7.53 million tons. The average annual growth rate during the 11th Five-Year Plan period was 15.0%. At the same time, the apparent consumption of domestic electrolytic aluminum will reach 24 million tons in 2015, and the average annual demand growth rate is expected to reach 8.6%, compared with 15.92 million tons in 2010 and an average annual growth rate of 17.5% during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. Essence Securities released the latest comment report that the characteristics of the non-ferrous metal industry in the next five years will be "control the total amount, adjust the structure, and take resources." From the perspective of total control, the annual growth rate of 10 non-ferrous metal production capacity in China in the next five years will be 8%, which will be less systematic than the current 11%. From the perspective of structural adjustment, China will focus on controlling the repeated construction of smelting capacity, guiding it to enrich the energy-rich areas in the west, and vigorously promoting industrial upgrading and technological progress, developing intensive processing, energy conservation and emission reduction, and production and service industries. Heavy metal pollution. From the point of view of resource security, the advantage of key enterprises to “go global” to take resources, “go to the west” to find resources and develop circular economy will become the three main directions. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the non-ferrous metals industry will give birth to more investment opportunities in terms of “regulating structure” and “taking resources”. Zhou Chong, an analyst with Century Securities Nonferrous Metals, expects that the heavily adjusted non-ferrous sector will have a rebound opportunity in 2012, and the possibility of a node appearing in the second quarter is too large. Favorable factors, including liquidity, will continue to increase financial attributes. The downside is the lack of demand due to the weak economy. Considering that China's CPI fell significantly in the first quarter, European debt reached its peak around March, the non-ferrous sector's decline has reached 40%, and the risk has been released. At the same time, non-ferrous metals are the pioneers of the broader market, which are often reflected in the secondary market, so we It is more likely to judge the rebound of the colored plate in the second quarter. For the trend of non-ferrous metal sectors, the most important is the expectation of non-ferrous metals prices, the market is generally not expected to be optimistic, but with the fourth-quarter non-ferrous prices and the rapid decline of non-ferrous stocks, the rebound momentum is increasing. In addition, Zhou Chong believes that stocks of emerging industries such as new materials and new energy sources will always be hot spots in the market. Between “performance reality” and “foreground expectations”, new materials and new energy stocks will fluctuate repeatedly.

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