Overcapacity loosing 8.3 million tons of refined copper consumption this year

Abstract At the 9th China Copper Industry Chain Development Forum, Duan Shaozhen, deputy director of the Heavy Metals Department of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that in 2013, China's refined copper production is expected to reach 6.3 million tons, and refined copper consumption growth is expected to be higher than last year's level. It is estimated to be 8.3 million tons. he...
At the 9th China Copper Industry Chain Development Forum, Duan Shaozhen, deputy director of the Heavy Metals Department of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that in 2013, China's refined copper production is expected to reach 6.3 million tons, and the growth rate of refined copper consumption is expected to be higher than last year's level. It is estimated to be 8.3 million tons. He also pointed out that the overcapacity problem that the copper industry may face in the future should now be vigilant. In the future, the copper industry will face the unavoidable reality of increasing production costs and slowing the growth of copper consumption.

Demand growth is higher than last year

Duan Shaoxuan said that from the current progress in the construction and expansion of smelting projects in China, some new projects will be put into operation in the second half of 2012, and production capacity will be formed this year. At the same time, the supply of concentrates is relatively abundant and the processing fees are raised, which will also stimulate copper. Further release of smelting capacity. It is estimated that China's refined copper output will reach 6.3 million tons in 2013, an increase of 8% year-on-year, slightly lower than last year.

In 2012, China's copper production continued to grow, with refined copper production reaching 5.82 million tons, up 12% year-on-year, and hitting a new high of 18,000 tons per day in December. However, in terms of growth rate, the production of refined copper has shown a downward trend since 2011. Judging from the production situation of various provinces, Jiangxi Province is the largest province producing copper products, among which copper or refined copper ranks first, and copper processed materials are second only to Zhejiang Province. In addition, production in non-traditional copper producing provinces such as Fujian, Guangdong and Sichuan increased rapidly.

Benefiting from the acceleration of grid investment and strong demand in the home appliance industry, domestic copper consumption is expected to grow steadily in 2013. According to Duan Shaozhen, the domestic refined copper consumption in 2013 is expected to be 8.3 million tons, an increase of 7% year-on-year, and the growth rate is slightly higher than that in 2012.

Data show that the growth rate of State Grid Corporation's investment in 2013 is expected to be 4%, slightly higher than last year. According to market research institute Zhongyikang, the size of the home appliance market in 2013 was 1.178 billion, an increase of 2.0%. Among them, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, water heaters, range hoods and other products will achieve positive growth, with year-on-year growth of 6.0%, 8.3%, 11.2%, 6.6% and 0.5%.

Be wary of overcapacity

In recent years, global copper production has remained in balance overall. There are supply shortages or oversupply in individual years, but the gap between supply and demand is not large. However, due to the limitations of resource conditions, there is a large gap between China's copper mines and refined copper, which also promotes smelting investment is very active.

Duan Shaozhen introduced that in 2012, copper smelting completed fixed assets investment of 22.2 billion yuan, down 29.88% year-on-year; fixed assets investment in the first three months of this year fell by 7.52% year-on-year, which has been declining for 11 consecutive months. In addition, mining and processing investment continued to grow, and the overall copper industry structure continued to develop in an optimized direction. However, it should also be noted that there are still many domestic copper smelting projects. “At the end of 2012, the domestic refined copper production capacity is expected to be close to 8 million tons. From the current situation, the domestic copper smelting capacity under construction and proposed will reach 200 tons. Presenting the development trend of the aluminum industry before the financial crisis."

In fact, with the slowdown of downstream demand, the overcapacity problem of some varieties of copper processing industry in China has already appeared, and the profit margin of the industry has shrunk severely.

The data shows that in 2012, the copper industry realized a profit of 54.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.4 billion yuan over the same period of the previous year. In the first three months of this year, the copper industry's sales profit margin was 2.3%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points over the same period of last year, and lower than the sales profit margin of 2.8% in the non-ferrous metals industry during the same period.

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