Production giants say polysilicon, but prices will fall in the second half of next year.

With the “two highs”, “overcapacity” and “high pollution” multiple hats, the domestic polysilicon industry was once swayed into the cold house by policy, but this year, global polysilicon prices are rising, but it has brought huge profits to domestic polysilicon manufacturers. Is there an excess of industry?

The polysilicon industry is not left
In an exclusive interview with the China Economic Net reporter, the solar cell manufacturer Yingli Green Energy executive director and CFO Li Zongxi said that there is no more than enough. Otherwise, there will be no soaring prices. The fundamental reason is that supply is in short supply. At present, Yingli is the fifth largest PV module manufacturer in the world, and this year it became famous for sponsoring the World Cup in South Africa.

From the polysilicon market, the price of polysilicon in April this year is still around 50 US dollars per kilogram, but as the photovoltaic industry picks up, the price rises all the way, entering September, the spot price of polysilicon broke through 90 US dollars per kilogram. After October, the foreign spot price has reached 100 US dollars to 110 US dollars per kilogram, and the price has nearly doubled.

Recently, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an early warning to China's photovoltaic industry, saying that there are four major problems in the industry, including the polysilicon industry's tendency to overheat investment. However, Li Zongxi believes that it is precisely because of the lack of materials in the upstream that the price has risen. The “No. 38 Document” implemented last year has intensified this upward trend. “The investment period of polysilicon project is two and a half years. The investment cycle of downstream PV modules is one year. Why is the upstream always confirmed? It is because the investment period is long. If the upstream is not developed, the upstream neck is still stuck abroad. If it is not a restriction, many polysilicon companies have now developed, so the price will come down."

He also pointed out that the basis of this decision is the capacity planning of each enterprise to report to the reform committee, but each province must be a great success, so there are 20,000 to 30,000 tons of planning, but the actual situation is that enterprises need several years to invest in construction. And if it is built well, it will not necessarily reach capacity immediately, usually after two or three years. "There should be a more scientific and rational dialectical view of an industry. There can be no big data to judge whether the industry is surplus."

Prices will fall in the second half of next year
The soaring price of polysilicon has driven domestic and foreign companies to expand their production capacity, and will enter the capacity release period in the next three years. Industry analysts are therefore worried that in the case that the global PV market demand is difficult to increase significantly, the PV industry will have an oversupply, and the price will There was a big drop.

Li Zongxi said that Yingli's current production capacity is only 1000MW, and the orders received exceed 4,000MW. Therefore, there is a huge gap in this. Currently, it is actively expanding its production capacity and is expected to grow by 60% next year. "The advantage to us is that there are more orders, and the right to speak is bigger. You can choose the price."

He also said that the price of polysilicon must be down, because the solar market is now subsidized by the government, the domestic market government has no subsidies, and can only do a piece of zero-star projects. The large-scale development of solar energy in the future must be that after the cost drops to the same level as the price of thermal power, the government does not need subsidies as long as it promotes development. At this time, the market potential is infinite, so before this day comes, the price will gradually decline. of. "So this is not terrible. On the day of the price, whoever can survive will see who can reduce the cost to that step. In China, according to current technology predictions, it should be two or three years later."

For the future market, Li Zongxi believes that the price of polysilicon will continue to be stable in the first half of next year, and will gradually decline in the second half of the year. As new domestic and foreign production capacity will be released, the raw materials will be sufficient.

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